Putin is not Joking; He is not Bluffing, are we? – Mehmet Öğütçü

It is part
of a familiar strategy that Russia organizes separatist forces in two regions
(Luhansk and Donetsk) on the Russian-Ukrainian border, instructs them to
declare independence, recognizes them, signs a friendship and military
assistance agreement, and finally sends Russian soldiers as a “peacekeeping
force”.

Now this
country has been invaded from all directions, air defense and attack systems
are being destroyed to prevent Ukraine from responding militarily.

He did the
same thing when tearing South Ossetia and Abkhazia apart from Georgia in 2008.
Except for weak Western condemnation/sanctions, no one did anything about that
intervention. It didn’t surprise us either, six years later, in 2014, when
Russia broke off Crimea from Ukraine. Again, except for some weak noise, no
counter-intervention came from the West.

We all
accepted the new status quo imposed by Putin.

It is also
known that there are new intrigues on Moldova’s Trans-Dniester, the Baltic
Republics, the North Sea Route, the Azerbaijan-Armenia corridors,
Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Kosovo. These continue, and we do not know which
direction they will unfold. Putin’s talk that Kazakhstan, with which it shares
a 5.600 km border, is a part of Russia historically and that the Kazakh nation
has never existed in that geography is a reflection of this way of thinking.

The point
is, Putin, who could not digest the collapse of the Soviet Union, openly
described it as a “great geopolitical disaster” and accused Gorbachev and
Yeltsin of “treason” for closing eyes to the process led by the West. It wants
to create a security circle around Russia, the largest geographical area in the
world (18 million Km²), which is 11 percent of the world’s land, and to
eliminate its “legitimate security concerns”.

He showed
this with the tough decisions and actions he took by brute force, disregarding
concepts such as “territorial integrity” and “sovereignty”, leaving no doubt
that he will continue to show it. The Russian leader he took as a role model in
history is Peter I, who we call “the Mad” and Russians “the Great”. Guess the
rest.

The
cornerstones of the new world order have not yet settled. China and Russia do
not accept the limited regional roles drawn for them. They shout to all of us
that if a rightful place directly proportional to their power is not opened,
they will take the position they think they deserve without leaving anyone to
their pleasure.

Suppose the
“logical marriage” between them goes like this. In that case, if Russia and
China continue to be viewed in the “enemy” category by the West if the
containment strategy does not give way to cooperation, I guess it may turn into
a “Catholic marriage”.

The new Cold War has started as of February 22, 2022.

We saw that
the response of the “West” (formerly seen as the USA, NATO, EU, OECD, and
Japan) to the fait accompli and realpolitik moves of these two powers is relatively
weak and far from being a deterrent. Maybe they’re not strong enough. They
rumble, but the result does not change.

Restriction
on five Russian banks, freezing the assets of three or five oligarchs,
suspension of the certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which may be
opened in a few months, deployment of several thousand military personnel to
the Baltic states, which are already NATO members and will benefit from the
provisions of Article 5’s “one for all, all for one” – these are measures far
from deterring Putin.

Since
coming to power, Putin has been experiencing sanctions and repulsing them
skillfully. As of December 2021, he had $630 billion in foreign exchange
reserves in his vault. Export income from weapons, oil, natural gas, coal,
mine, metal, and nuclear gives comfort.

What’s
more, China has said it’s ready to help if Russia gets too stuck at the latest
Vladimir Putin-Xi Jinping Beijing summit. NATO, OSCE, UN sanctions, and
condemnations are not as valuable as the paper on them.

That’s why
useless sanctions, calling for moderation and calmness, inviting the parties to
the diplomatic table to comply with international law, and other classical
diplomatic jargons do not make much sense. As Putin has passed the KGB bench
since the age of 16, he takes and implements decisions based on sound
intelligence in a Cold War mindset. He knows very well the weakness and
strengths of the West and how far he can go. He is a master chess player.

Turkey is
at the center of the fire in this crisis, was in the previous ones, and will be
in those that will erupt in the future. The entrance to the Black Sea is under
Turkish control thanks to the Montreux Convention. There is an asymmetrical
relationship with Moscow; the “win-win” proposition doesn’t work. The Turkish
trade deficit with Russia is heavy and favors Moscow. Interdependence is high on
fossil fuel, food, weapons purchase, and nuclear. One out of every four foreign
tourists comes from Russia (and Ukraine).

Putin’s leadership and the lack of leaders in the West play a role in Russia’s success beyond its real economic, military, and diplomatic power.

President
Erdogan has repeatedly forced the gates of Moscow, Saint Petersburg, and Sochi,
but Putin only came a few times when his interests required. He did not stop by
Ankara during most of his official visits but met in Istanbul. Turks and Putin
are not on the same line and frequency in Syria, Iraq, the Balkans, the
Caucasus, and Central Asia. Despite this, it is admirable that the two leaders maintained
good working relations and kept the channels of dialogue open.

Russia will
continue its side-by-side approach, taking strength from the West’s “appeasement”
policy, both in Ukraine, in the former Soviet republics and satellite countries
that it describes as its “backyard” or “near abroad” as well as in the Middle
East, Africa, and the Far East. Here, Putin’s leadership and the lack of
leaders in the West play a role in Russia’s success beyond its real economic,
military, and diplomatic power.

Turkey
urgently needs to increase the quality and agility of its foreign policy,
security and intelligence management and demonstrate the reliability and weight
required for being a trusted regional power. Putin can easily follow similar
strategies for separatist movements within and around Turkey.

Therefore,
without being excessively dependent on Russia, re-establishing relations with
Russia on a realistic “win-win” basis, restoring the distorted balance with the
West, and re-integrating the region’s countries into the equation based on the
balance of power. Turkey must defend and advance its well-defined security and
economic interests consistently and resolutely with Central Asia, the Caucasus,
the Middle East, Southeast Europe.

Otherwise, Putin’s
Russia has the potential to hit us in the heart in unexpected ways and times as
he will in other countries in Europe and Asia.

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To cite this work: Putin is not joking; he is not bluffing, are we?’, Panorama, Online, 27 February 2022, https://www.uikpanorama.com/blog/2022/02/27/putin-joking/

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