Peace and Stability in Turkey’s Neighborhood- Sinem Açıkmeşe- Özgür Özdamar

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.26973.49123/1

Global Threats and Opportunities

Recent
decades have been relatively unstable in world politics, especially since the
end of the Cold War. Today’s world is going through significant transformations
that are difficult to make sense of for both the International Relations (IR) scholarly
community and policymakers.

We
should now recognize that international politics is a moving, rather than a
stable, target. The IR community did not realize this fact, and we do not entirely
understand the transformation we are going through. We need to think
proactively and prepare to forecast international developments and prevent political
catastrophes in our region and beyond. These platforms, such as this forum, are
designed to achieve those aims. That is why this forum focuses on peace and
stability in our region.

Global
challenges are substantial, and they project real challenges to states, their
citizens and the global society. In the next few years, more people are likely
to die from climate change and food crises than from bullets and conflict. One
such perfect storm is caused by the COVID19 pandemic and the consequent
economic crisis with profound political implications. In the near future, political
and financial problems, along with global food and energy issues, will dominate
the agenda.

Countries
are not individually responsible for the upcoming series of crises, as they
cannot provide adequate responses by themselves. A multilateral approach and
international cooperation are essential to tackle today’s global problems. We
recognize that the current global challenges require a significantly more
collective approach.

Grand Questions Concerning Global Politics

One
of the most central issues in today’s world politics is the global rivalry
between the US and China. Many consider the rivalry between China and the US to
be the main fault line in world politics. Global implications of this
competition have been discussed for more than two decades. Especially IR
scholars have been focusing on the US-China rivalry since they think great
power rivalry is one of the main drivers of world politics. Especially American
and Chinese academics and policymakers focus on this subject and try to explain
and predict the rivalry’s implications, ranging from Taiwan’s status to
spillover effects in the MENA region, Africa, and South America. However, in
this part of the world (i.e., Turkey’s neighbourhood and Europe), the US-China
rivalry, or the rise of China, is still not considered a primary issue. Neither
for Europeans nor post-Soviet countries, China is the most critical topic.

Nevertheless,
this lack of interest in China and the US-China rivalry has begun to change
recently. For example, NATO official documents throughout 2022 include a
critical China discussion from a European perspective, even though Russia and
terrorism continue to be seen as the main threat to Europe. We will see more
discussions on China in upcoming NATO and EU strategic papers. In other words, although
China is not seen as a threat, from a Eurasian perspective, it is perceived as
a challenge. Eurasian countries do not want a new Cold War with China. Still,
they recognize the rise of China is a challenge (for differences in European
and NATO attitudes towards China, see the latest Strategic Compass
and Strategic Concept
documents). Thus, it is imperative that, in the coming years, we will see more
strategy documents from Eurasian countries about China.

On
the other hand, Western institutions will undoubtedly continue to discuss
Russia as a direct threat to Eurasian stability and security. Russia’s invasion
of Ukraine holds a significant destabilizing effect, which unified the Western
alliance in its condemnation of Russia and balancing against it. From that point
forward, Europe needs a more coherent policy against the Russian threat to find
a precarious balance between preventing malicious Russian influence and
containing Russian threats.

There
is also a prominent political dimension to this east-west conflict: the
autocracy-democracy dichotomy. Admittedly, many east-west disputes have this autocracy-democracy
dimension. The future of international society depends not only on power
distribution among great powers but also on the ongoing rivalry between democracies
and autocracies such as Russia and China.

We
should also consider that the autocracy-democracy issue may not be as black and
white as some present it, but it is one of a continuum. Many states fall
between fully democratic and autocratic regimes, and there are moves between
them. One significant challenge is what to do with the countries that fall in
between, like Turkey or Hungary, or the ones that move the divide between
democracy and autocracy. The main challenge would be how to treat these governments
and incorporate these countries, so they do not shift to less democratic modes
of government. How can we best achieve democratic goals by integrating these
countries into the current international system? Conflict with these countries
based on existing problems may push them towards more autocratic regimes.
Therefore, the international community should follow a precarious balance when
dealing with these states.

Responses to Challenges: Transforming Alliances

To
face the current major political and security problems the world faces, most
states turn to multilateral schemes and try to establish alliances.

As
the remaining superpower, the US wants to maintain the current balance of
power. The US will likely engage in a double containment strategy vis-a-vis the
other great powers. That is, the US policymakers perceive a very competitive
world politics and security environment, aiming to contain Russia and China at
the same time. The Biden Administration’s return to a more active leadership
role in NATO and the US-EU cooperation against the Russian invasion of Ukraine
seems to support the argument that there will be a west-east competition,
similar to the one the world witnessed during the Cold War. The Russian
invasion of Ukraine has helped NATO and allies to get closer and resolve many
differences in the face of the Russian military threat. However, the strength
and unity of the Western alliance should also be monitored. There are
significant doubts that Germany and France will continue to balance against
Russia due to the invasion of Ukraine. A serious crack in the Western alliance,
as an outcome of several factors, including Russian pressure on Europe, may
give Russia the political support it needs to continue with the Ukraine invasion
and beyond.

The
West’s balancing acts are reciprocated by Russia and China, which seem to cooperate
against the US and Western influence in the world. These two states’ joint
policy declarations in the last year appear to confirm the prediction that
Putin and Xi work together to balance American and Western influence in the
world. Putin’s visit to China right before the Ukraine invasion and their joint
declaration seemed like a policy document confirming “an eastern alliance”
formed by Russia and China against the West. Other major powers also appear in
world politics, such as India, whose political inclinations are uncertain.
India is becoming the fourth greatest military power in the world, with no
clear sign of alliance with Western governments.

Observers
are concerned that Russia’s invasion of Crimea and, later, its attempt to
invade the rest of Ukraine may give China the necessary courage to move against
Taiwan and achieve unification (Ukraine
War Quagmire Prompting China Rethink on Taiwan, 2022). Chinese President Xi
Jinping declared that “unification” will be completed before 2049, in less than
three decades. Such annexations like Crimea by Russia pose dire consequences.
These annexations may lead to similar behaviour by other actors, such as Taiwan
by China.

Responses to Challenges: International Organizations and
Multilateralism

The
future of the international system is uncertain and subject to great debate
recently. The current liberal world order seems to be shaken by recent
challenges. It is fair to say that the current international regime does not
seem as stable as it was half a century ago. Actors are breaking its principal
rules, such as Russia invading Ukraine. Other revisionist actors pose strong
criticisms against the international regime and its rules.

Some
observers think these criticisms are unfair: the current UN system aims to
prevent system-transforming wars between great powers. In this sense, the
current international system established in 1945 has been successful since
there has not been a great power war since the end of World War II. International
law and institutions have brought a new kind of stability to the system. The UN
system has worked efficiently in terms of applying international law,
international organizations, and diplomatic resolutions to problems since the
end of World War II. But participants also recognize the insufficiencies, lack
of democratic institutions, and representation in the current international regime.

Relatedly,
another significant challenge is to discuss whether an international system
based on values can be created. There are clashing opinions on that. Some argue
it is impossible to create a value-based system, given the narrow
self-interests of all governments. Some argue we already live in a value-based system
where members voluntarily bind themselves to international law and institutions.
The debate between the proponents of these views is not likely to end soon.

Unconventional Threats in World Politics

Multiple
unconventional threats threaten the global system, such as the COVID19
pandemic, economic crises, and the looming food shortages. How will these
developments affect world politics, its markets, and citizens? It seems that
with the war in Ukraine, we are fast approaching a food crisis, especially in
poorer regions of the world. Many underprivileged countries will not be able to
feed their population, which will, in turn, have immense social, economic, and
political consequences. China has been hoarding grain for about a year
(Watanabe & Munakata, 2021). More than half of the grain in the world was
bought by China in the last year. This may add to the food problem, and
significant food shortages may bring catastrophic effects to the developing world
and beyond.

Environmental
problems and climate change are also likely to have an all-encompassing effect
on world politics and societies. Climate change and its implications will be
very relevant, aggravating existing problems if not addressed adequately. The
only possible way to tackle these problems appears to be relying on
international cooperation and institutions, though these institutions seem to
be failing more and more recently.

Finally,
domestic conflicts within major powers are likely to threaten global stability,
such as those involving the Uyghurs in China and Muslims in India. These are
also likely to be sources of less conventional conflicts in the world.

Multi-Faceted Crises in the Middle East and North Africa

The
Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have been influenced by social upheavals,
revolutions, wars, and crises in the last decade. It seems like there is a
never-ending crisis in the MENA region, which is neither closed nor isolated.
Every political incident taking place in the MENA has global as well as
regional implications.

MENA
conflicts are interconnected. There are shared underlying sources of these
conflicts. External penetration of the region by major powers and regional
actors prolongs the conflicts (for different examples, see Krieg, 2016; Lawson,
2021). The fighters recycled from winding down conflicts appear to flame
conflicts in other regions. Regional and global arms transfer to fighting sides
causes conflicts to become protracted. Moreover, these conflicts have spillover
effects, destabilizing surrounding areas and beyond (Salloukh, 2017). For
example, the conflict in Libya has already spilt over to Sahel countries,
Afghanistan and Pakistan in Asia and Europe in the form of terror attacks. 

There
are some structural and non-structural variables to observe that will shape the
dynamics of conflict in the MENA. Climate change is one of them. MENA is
exceptionally sensitive to climate change because of a lack of fresh water for
the population; droughts, fires, and famine worsen yearly. Second is the
financial outflow to warring groups in the region and whether more powerful
actors will be able to supply resources to conflicting parties. In addition,
poverty, economic hardship and lack of food sources are likely to feed
revolutionary trends. The situation of Kurds is a separate subject but very
influential in MENA politics, holding potential for spillovers. These
structural factors, both conventional and unconventional, would shape stability
in the region.

The
resolution of these issues requires more diplomacy, mediation, and the inclusion
of civil society. Great power politics, regional rivalries and regional great powers’
conflicting policies negatively influence MENA developments.

The situation in the North and European Order

The
European security environment has changed significantly with the war in
Ukraine. A new security architecture is likely to emerge from the effects of
this conflict. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and challenges by the COVID19
pandemic have integrated and transformed Europe with its institutions,
including the European Union and NATO. Western approaches and responses result
from strategic necessities, which in return are transforming Europe. However,
there are discussions that Europe and the West are not as unified. Would there
be more unification, a step towards deeper integration? In the case of the EU
or NATO, unanimity or decision-making structures constitute a limitation.

On
the other hand, the EU acted immediately against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The Versailles Declaration proved itself as a founding document. Yet,
membership applications of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia pose significant new
challenges to the EU. In addition to the changing and challenging politics of
the EU, new applications for NATO membership, Sweden and Finland, will
contribute to the transformation of Europe. War in Ukraine contributed to the
strengthening of the European pillar of NATO. However, NATO-EU relations, and transatlantic
cooperation, are a more complicated issue with the discussions on strategic
autonomy and the EU’s preparations for the Strategic Compass. In other words,
relations are not as one of a paragon as one would expect.

The
Strategic Compass paper by the EU is a lengthy document. Weak references to
Turkey constitute an important problem. A brief reference to NATO is not
satisfactory either. However, the good news is that the EU has finally
identified its capacity and the level of ambition in its international
relations and security domains with this document and will be responsible for
small-range operations. This means the EU will still need NATO for strategic
purposes for the foreseeable future. Besides these concerns on security, the
nuclear issue also poses a critical challenge. NATO holds to its
deterrence-oriented nuclear position, assuring allied European states on
trusting the US nuclear umbrella against possible nuclear threats it mentions
in the Strategic Concept.

Finally,
it is recognized that climate change and electronic warfare pose challenges to
states that cannot be addressed adequately individually. NATO’s Strategic
Concept acknowledges that climate change not only threatens the welfare of the
members but also can lead to conventional insecurities by exacerbating
conflicts or feeding into their causes. Similarly, the EU recognizes the direct
and indirect challenges climate change can pose and calls for multilateral
cooperation. In addition, while conscious of the rivalries China can lead to,
it recognizes the value attached to cooperating with China on such a global
problem.

As
for cyber security, both NATO and the EU recognize the threats posed to their members
by state and non-state actors and call for cooperation in this realm. While
China is seen as a direct threat in the NATO document and the Strategic
Compass, it seems the EU pursues a more positive stance towards accepting the
Chinese capabilities and in dialogue. However, despite their different perspectives
vis-a-vis Chinese cyber capabilities, the EU also calls for cooperating with
NATO in the realm of cyber security.

Recommendations

The
conference participants concluded that multilateralism, in general, holds the
potential to improve several of the problems the region suffers. In addition to
security threats from armed actors, threats from climate change and refugee
issues can be better addressed through multilateral cooperation within the frameworks
of global and regional international organizations. Many security and economic
threats can be tackled with the existing frameworks such as the EU, NATO and
BSEC. To achieve these aims, common threats must be met with strength and
existing membership in these organizations must be preserved and expanded as
necessary. While the EU and NATO will lead these efforts, some specific actors,
such as Ukraine, Poland, Romania, and Turkey, are considered essential as global
players or international institutions since they face direct security threats
and other regional concerns.

It
seems that the Black Sea region will continue to focus on the rivalry between
East and West and between democracies and autocracies. Thus, Western allies
should find ways to protect themselves against Russia’s use of energy resources
as a threat. 2022-2023 winter will be an interesting test case for Europe to
determine whether it is possible to decrease dependency on Russian oil and gas.

Like-minded
states in the West should also recognize the challenges in explaining to their public
that the difficulties experienced by war in Ukraine are justified and should be
seen as an investment for a free future. More trust in the democratic system
must be restored through economic development and security provisions for
populations.

New
threats such as disinformation and its harmful effects on democracy must be
recognized (Kornbluh et al., 2020). Also, it should be accepted that policies
against disinformation can be conducted better when done multilaterally. As
recognized by NATO’s Strategic Concept, interference in domestic affairs by
other states poses the risk of causing a democratic deficit in the allied
countries. Such threats, too, would be better addressed if the actors pool
their resources. Indeed, given that most anti-democratic groups favour the
in-group vs out-group dimensions, cooperation among states would present an
obstacle against the appeal of such narratives in the first place. To sum up our
points, we argue that multilateralism holds the potential to address several of
the domestic, transnational, and international problems regional states
currently suffer.

References

Kornbluh, K., E. P. Goodman, E. Weiner (2020). Safeguarding Democracy Against
Disinformation. The German Marshall Fund of the United States.

Krieg, A. (2016). “Externalizing the burden of war: The
Obama Doctrine and US foreign policy in the Middle East”. International Affairs, 92(1):
97–113.

Lawson, F. H. (2021). “Why foreign military interventions
prolong civil wars: Lessons from Yemen”. International
Politics.

Salloukh, B. F. (2017). “The Syrian War: Spillover Effects
on Lebanon”. Middle East Policy, 24(1), 62–78.

Council of the European Union
(2022). Strategic Compass. https://www.eeas.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/strategic_compass_en3_web.pdf (Last
accessed September 19 2022).

NATO (2002). Strategic Concept. https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2022/6/pdf/290622-strategic-concept.pdf (Last accessed September 19 2022).

“Ukraine war quagmire prompting
China to rethink Taiwan: CIA chief”, AlJazeera, 21 July 22022, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/21/ukraine-quagmire-prompting-china-rethink-on-taiwan-cia-chief (Last accessed September 19 2022).

Watanabe, S., and A. Munakata (2021). “China hoards over half the world’s grain,
pushing global prices”. Nikkei Asia, 23 December, https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/China-hoards-over-half-the-world-s-grain-pushing-up-global-prices (Last accessed September 19 2022).

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To cite this work : Sinem Açıkmeşe & Özgür Özdamar “ Peace and Stability in Turkey’s Neighborhood ”, Panorama, Online , 21 September 2022, https://www.uikpanorama.com/blog/2022/09/21/tr1/

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This article summarizes and synthesizes debates and results from a Global Leadership Forum workshop titled “Peace and Stability in the Neighborhood”, which took place at Zifin Hotel in Giresun-Turkey, 10-12 June 2022, co-organized by GlobalAcademy and the School of Government and Leadership of Bahçeşehir University.

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