Will Turkey-Israeli relations withstand the challenges?- Karel Valansi

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A new era began in Turkey-Israel relations. After a
long marathon of diplomacy, the rapprochement, which became visible with Israeli
President Yitzhak Herzog’s highly publicized visit to Ankara on March 9, 2022, took
another step forward with the meeting of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and
Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid in New York, during the United Nations
General Assembly meeting in September. Apart from President Erdoğan’s encounter
with an Israeli prime minister for the first time since December 2008, another
symbolic meaning of this date was that it was indeed the starting point for the
deterioration in bilateral relations. At the time, Erdoğan played the role of
facilitator in the talks between Syria and Israel. However, a rupture in
Turkish-Israeli ties began with the Operation Cast Lead in Gaza on December 22,
2008, shortly following the return from Turkey to Israel of then-Prime Minister
Ehud Olmert.

Turkey and Israel reappointed respective ambassadors
more than four years after they were called back. The decisions to raise diplomatic
relations to the high-ranking level and to appoint ambassadors depict the
positive advancement reached in the normalization process between Turkey and
Israel. However, if Turkey and Israel are to succeed in their goal of
strengthening ties, they must re-establish trust and harmony in their
relationships. Reaching the level of an alliance the two countries enjoyed in
the 1990s will be a long and challenging journey. The primary barrier to this
is the mistrust and suspicion between the two nations due to the extended
period of estrangement and detachment. While a serious effort must be made to
rebuild trust, let us remember that the normalization in bilateral relations is
not happening because the two countries’ leaders trust each other but because
both countries need it.

Meanwhile, regional balances changed in favor of
Israel during the deterioration of relations. While Turkey isolated itself due
to its foreign policy choices, the regional balances changed in favor of Israel
with the successive launches of the Abraham Accords, the Eastern Mediterranean
Gas Forum, and the Negev Forum. Israel currently has a strong regional presence
and is self-assured in the strength of its economy and military power. Although
this does not reduce Turkey’s importance in Israel’s eyes, it nevertheless eases
its hand regarding its expectations. In this context, the normalization process
is proceeding in a delicate balance, and failure to meet expectations may
adversely affect the momentum already achieved.

In recent years, Ankara has aimed to expand Turkey’s
military and diplomatic influence in its neighborhood through an assertive
shift in its foreign policy. However, this strategy has angered both its allies
and neighbors. Lately, Turkey noticed that the ideologically based foreign
policy decisions it has been pursuing for some time had caused isolation in the
international arena. Additionally, Ankara realized that due to its foreign
policy shift, it could not find a country to stand with it even on the issues
where it is on the right.

Despite initially remaining out of the substantial
developments in the region, particularly the Abraham Accords, Turkey has recently
made overtures to various countries, including Israel, the United Arab
Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, with whom relations had deteriorated in the
last few years. As the economic crisis persists, Ankara hopes to garner support
against threats to its security and draw in international investors thanks to
the regional rapprochements that are taking place.

Moreover, in the perception of Turkish state
officials, Israel has always been considered a route to Washington. In this
context, Ankara needs the support of Israel and the American Jewish Lobby,
especially in purchasing the new generation of F-16 aircraft from the United
States and renovating its F-16 fleet. This is why President Erdoğan made an
effort to maintain friendly ties with the American Jewish lobbying
organizations, even during the darkest days of relations with Israel.

Further, Turkey, which is still outside the alliance
that has been formalized in the Eastern Mediterranean, seeks to enhance its
position in the region against the theses of Greece and Cyprus, which it
perceives as adversaries, by repairing its relations with Israel. Finally,
Ankara desires to become a regional energy hub by transferring Israeli natural
gas to Europe.

Turkey is a significant
regional power for Israel. Normalizing its relations with Turkey is essential for
ensuring regional stability and strengthening Israel’s international position.
For Israel, developing cooperation with Turkey is a crucial victory against
Iran, which it sees as an existential threat. An essential factor accelerating
the normalization between the two countries is that Tehran, troubled by the
rapprochement between Turkey and Israel, was stopped by the Turkish-Israeli
intelligence partnership while preparing a terrorist attack against the
Israelis in Turkey. Furthermore, it is no secret that Israel wants to exert
pressure on Hamas through Turkey, which it views as a major danger.

Israel has repeatedly
demanded the closure of the Hamas office in Istanbul. We can safely assume from
the statements made following the Erdoğan-Lapid meeting in New York that Israel
also requested Ankara’s mediation on the release of Israelis held by Hamas.

Energy may be the issue
that ignited the normalization between Turkey and Israel, but it is also where the
most significant obstacles might be experienced. With the discovery of natural
gas, Israel has turned into a regional energy player and has also been playing
this advantage as a diplomatic card to advance its relations.

The alliance
established through the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum has made it possible
for Israel to collaborate with the relevant countries on a variety of topics,
and not just on energy. Israel does not want to lose this momentum by choosing
a side in the renewed tension between Turkey and Greece. Therefore, while
keeping its options open regarding energy, it will also pay attention to balancing
its relations with both countries and the Greek Cypriots.

Trade is an area where both
countries agree on. Looking at trade volumes, Turkey and Israel already proved
that they could separate politics and economy even when the political relations
were at a standstill. Recently, the bilateral trading volume has been 8 billion
dollars as Turkey and Israel have complementary economies and are not
competitors in this respect. The bilateral trade volume is expected to increase
further with political normalization. Although Israel has recently strengthened
its economic ties with many significant economies, including India and Brazil,
this hasn’t altered Turkey’s importance as a close-by and large market.

The Palestinian issue
is the most severe obstacle to normalizing relations between the two countries.
After its relations with Israel deteriorated, Ankara abandoned its balanced
approach. Ankara took sides between Israel and the Palestinians and between Fatah
and Hamas. It can be interpreted as an effort to detach bilateral relations
from the Palestinian issue. Anti-Israel discourses, which can occasionally
degenerate into antisemitism, are no longer frequently expressed. That emphasis
is placed on the benefits the Palestinians will gain from this reconciliation.
The most important result of Herzog’s visit to Ankara was the decision to
continue the dialogue even though they did not agree on every issue and to set
up mechanisms to solve the problems that may arise constructively.

Following the
reciprocal inauguration of ambassadors, the next step should be to review the
agreements signed in the 1990s and adapt them to present conditions. Works on
civil aviation have already begun. The fact that Turkish Airlines is the most
popular foreign airline among Israelis and that Israeli airlines have resumed
flights to Turkey demonstrate how quickly things may change in this sector. Likewise,
the 1996 free trade agreement between the two countries needs to be renewed.
The meeting of the two sides at an economic summit may accelerate the
developments in this regard.

On the other hand, the
two sides have to keep in mind that their priorities are different. Turkey
brings the issue of energy, while Israel advances the issue of trade to the
forefront of bilateral relations. There should be no unrealistic expectations
and no emotional outbursts for progress in the reconciliation process. In
addition to energy and trade, other areas that can be improved include
transportation and tourism.

There is optimism for
the future of relations between Turkey and Israel since they were able to forge
alliance-level ties in the past and because they assisted one another in
humanitarian efforts even during the years when their political relations were
deteriorating. Still, it will take more effort and time to restore the lost
confidence between the two countries than to break it. Turkey and Israel, who have
adopted similar positions in the Karabakh and Ukrainian wars, can cooperate, for
instance, on Syria. But while Israel’s policy of pressuring Iran would support
this development, it also threatens to put Turkey in a dangerous position between
Israel and Iran.

Following November 1,
2022, elections in Israel and the victory of Benjamin Netanyahu, question marks
arose about the future of bilateral relations. Although a known bad chemistry
exists between Erdoğan and Netanyahu, both leaders are pragmatic and most
probably will prefer to keep the momentum. Additionally, the normalization has
been institutionalized with numerous agreements signed and ambassadors
appointed on both sides.

With Netanyahu’s return
to power, we may not see the sincere poses reflected in the press and this
development may postpone Erdoğan’s visit to Israel. However, Israel Defense
Minister Benny Gantz’s visit to Ankara just days before the general election in
Israel and his meeting with President Erdoğan and his counterpart Hulusi Akar
are evidence of the importance both sides place to the normalization of the
relations. Erdoğan recently sent a congratulatory letter to Netanyahu for his
electoral victory calling for the continuation of the cooperation between the
two countries. Additionally, on November 11, 2022, Şakir Özkan Torunlar, an
experienced diplomat who had previously served as Turkey’s consul general in
Jerusalem from 2010 to 2014, was named ambassador to Israel in a presidential
decree. Finally, the presence of far-right Religious Zionism party in the next Israeli
coalition, the Ukrainian war, the energy crisis in Europe, or a rekindled
conflict in Gaza will test the resilience of bilateral relations, which are
maintained along a delicate line.

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To cite this work: Karel Valansi , “Will Turkey-Israeli relations withstand the challenges?”, Panorama, Online, 14 November 2022, https://www.uikpanorama.com/blog/2022/11/14/kv-2/

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