One Year of the Full-Scale Russian Invasion of Ukraine: How a Small Country Has Ruined a Great Russia Myth – Yevgeniya Gaber

---

As the world has crossed the threshold of the first anniversary of the Russian war in Ukraine, experts from all over the world are examining the shifts it caused in international system, geopolitical alliances, national security strategies and regional settings. Indeed, the global implications of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine are multifold and the processes that it has triggered will likely outlast the war itself – from energy and food security to impacts for global financial markets and supply chains. The short conclusion, however, is concise: Ukraine has outperformed morally and militarily, the West – politically, and Russia – economically.

The skills of
Ukrainian military on the battlefield and the power of civil resilience
of Ukrainian society have become
textbook examples of total defence and symbols of outstanding resistance. From the
first days of the war, both individuals and institutions including armed forces, president, parliament,
government, police, emergency services, local
authorities, health workers, firefighters, NGO’s, businesses, and volunteers have been mobilized in a nation-wide struggle for independence, and
often – simply for a physical survival.
It is first and foremost the motivation and morale, that helped Ukraine
withstand the overwhelming forces of invaders.

This, however, has not come as
a surprise. Unlike for many foreign observers, for Ukrainians the full-scale
Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, was not a beginning but a culmination of
a centuries-long struggle for personal liberties, distinct national identity,
and state sovereignty. The long historical record of bans on Ukrainian language
and literature under the Russian Empire (e.g. the Ems Order or Valuev Circular), The Great Famine
(Holodomor) of 1932-1933, which killed more than 10 millions of Ukrainians and
was officially recognized as a genocide in many countries, deportations of
Crimean Tatars and other ethnic groups committed by the Communist regime, mass
persecutions and executions of Ukrainian intellectuals (often known as Executed Renaissance) that aimed at
coercive Russification of Ukraine under the Soviet rule, and systemic efforts
to exterminate Ukrainians as a political nation have left few illusions about
the future destiny of non-Russian population of Ukraine in case of its
occupation. Though largely unknown and often overshadowed by the Russian
“brotherly nations” narrative, these facts remain an important part of the
Ukrainian collective memory. It is these memories of the past and the post-2014
realities of the “Russkiy mir” in the occupied territories in the present, that
did not allow Russia to freeze Ukrainians into submission in the winter of
2022, despite its regular missile attacks on critical energy and civilian
infrastructure across the country.    

At the same time, Ukrainian armed forces have proved again and again that they have been capable of not only deterring but also defeating Russia on the
battlefield. After preventing Russian forces from seizing
Kyiv, in a number of
successful operations they succeeded to retake Kharkiv,
Chernihiv, Sumy regions, and liberate
the Snake Island just kilometers off Ukraine’s Black Sea
coastline. The latter
has become possible after sinking of the Russian Black
Sea Fleet’s flagship “Moskva”,
notably to almost no reaction from Moscow. Predictably, Russia withdraws at
strength, and escalates at weakness.

Most recently, by breaking
through Russia’s defensive lines in the south, Ukrainian forces have liberated part of the Kherson region and managed to halt Russia’s concentrated offensive in
the east. Now, at the
400^th day of what was supposed to be a “three-days military
operation”, the Russian troops have lost more than 220 000 thousand killed
and wounded in Ukraine, according to the UK Defence Ministry and US assessments. These figures
are in line with the Ukrainian General Staff’s official data.

While Russia
will highly unlikely manage to attract 400,000 volunteer professional soldiers, which it
claimed to be the goal of its new recruitment, stepping up the pace and scope of
sophisticated and heavy arms supplies to Ukraine can help turn the tide of the
war this year.

After the obvious
failure of the Russian conventional forces on the battlefield, the Kremlin will
likely try to play two cards at the same time – calling for an “immediate peace”
(via his allies) to freeze the situation on the ground and maintain territorial
gains in Ukraine while simultaneously intimidating the world with a nuclear war
if the “peace” plan is not accepted. With no prospects for a negotiated
settlement with president Putin, who has now been issued an arrest warrant for
the war crimes in Ukraine and unlawful deportation of Ukrainian children to
Russia, a protracted conflict remains the worst-case scenario for the
foreseeable future.

Playing by the
Russian rules in any of these scenarios would entail long-lasting negative
effects for global security, spelling the end to the international order as we
know it. As Peter Dickinson aptly put it, “if nuclear blackmail
pays off for Putin in Ukraine and allows him to snatch a victory from the jaws
of defeat, it will become a normalized element of international relations with
devastating consequences for global security”, since “countries around the world will scramble to acquire nuclear
arsenals of their own in order to avoid the fate of Ukraine.” This must not be
allowed.

The hesitance of partners to step up
their military support to Ukraine and the desire of some leaders to “appease
the aggressor” were understandable (though unjustified) in
the first months of the invasion – when Russia was still seen as the world’s second strongest army,
the scope of the Russian
atrocities in Ukraine were largely unknown
and the hopes for a peaceful resolution still there.

Now, as the myths of the Russian greatness have been
debunked, the corridor for escalation narrowed and the capabilities of the
Ukrainian armed forces boosted by the Western training and arms supplies, the international community should join Kyiv in aiming for an unequivocal victory of Ukraine in
its 1991 borders, including Crimea. This will be not only the most legitimate
and moral but also the most pragmatic and reasonable way to end this war.

---

---

To cite this work: Dr. Yevgeniya Gaber, “One Year of the Full-Scale Russian Invasion of Ukraine: How a Small Country Has Ruined a Great Russia Myth”, Panorama, Online, 26 April 2023, https://www.uikpanorama.com/blog/2023/04/26/yg/

---

Copyright@UIKPanorama. All on-line and print rights reserved. Opinions expressed in works published by the Panorama belongs to the authors alone unless otherwise stated, and do not imply endorsement by the IRCT, Global Academy, or the Editors/Editorial Board of Panorama.