Turkey’s Policy towards Russia and Turkey-Russia Relations – Habibe Özdal

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Turkey’s policy towards Russia has some aspects of historical
continuity, though it has also acquired new dimensions in the 2000s. Turkey and
Russia prioritized strengthening their relations with Western states for
different reasons at the beginning of the 20^th century. Turkish
political elite wished their country to be included in the Western world
ideologically and identically from the early years of the Republic of Turkey.
The Soviet Union was, on the other hand, an important partner when Turkey opted
for a balanced foreign policy. While one can find exceptions, Turkey maintained
its relations with the Soviet Union even during the Cold War and preferred to
intensify its collaboration, especially after Johnson’s letter created an
enormous drift between Turkey and the U.S. Yet, Turkey’s relations with the
Soviet Union were mainly limited with the trade and energy.

To see cooperation branch out into different areas and
develop a new approach that elaborates Russia not only as a balancing factor
but as an actor with whom relations can be strengthened, we needed to wait until
the mid-2000s. Throughout the 2000s, Russia was seen as an important regional
and global actor. In line with that, Turkish foreign policymakers attempted to
develop bilateral relations in many areas.

Current political leaders in both countries came into
power in the early 2000s. During this period, a cooperation-oriented approach
in bilateral relations came to the fore as one of the many columns of a
multidimensional foreign policy approach. The 2008 global economic crisis
caused a shrinkage in Western economies, while countries such as Russia, China,
Brazil, and Turkey continued to grow economically. In line with their financial
performance, emerging economies demanded more say in the international sphere. In
the same period, as the Georgian War showed, Russia started to follow a more active
and aggressive foreign policy in its region and global politics.

On the other hand, Turkey’s membership negotiations
with the European Union were interrupted. Finding common ground on their deteriorating
relations with the West, Turkey and Russia intensified their cooperation in
many fields, from economy to politics. As a result, questions about whether
Turkey had changed its axis in foreign policy started to be raised.

By 2011, for the first time in history, visa
liberalization started between the two states, mutual official visits of the
leaders of the two countries with their delegations became routine, relations
diversified and intensified not only in the fields of energy and trade but also
from education to culture, and from tourism to art. The momentum gained in
bilateral relations has been mostly a result of the high level of coherence at the
leader-to-leader level. However, strong relations between the two leaders also represent
the soft belly of bilateral relations. The most obvious example of the problems
caused by the lack of institutionalization has been the jet crisis in November
2015 and its aftermath. The shooting down of a Russian warplane by Turkey,
which was carrying out bombings in Turkmen villages in Syria and violated
Turkish airspace while doing so, was a significant turning point in the history
of bilateral relations. During the crisis, institutions could not step in and function.
Eventually, both sides took the most drastic measures, and bilateral relations
were hit hard.

With the warplane incident, all the agreements/contracts
signed between the two sides were suspended, and diplomatic relations were at
their lowest level for eight months. Although the normalization step was taken
in the end, the current structure of the relations -not surprisingly from the
perspective of international relations- is not problem free.

Turkish-Russian relations after normalization had
different characteristics, which made it possible to observe cooperation in
some areas and competition in others. While Turkey and Russia, for example, are
two actors working together in the war in Syria, they support opposing parties
in Libya. Bilateral relations and cooperation between Ankara and Moscow are not
based on common interests, common values, and a shared vision regarding the
structure and future of the international system. What brings them together is
the need to work together. This necessity is based on the fact that the two
countries are either the main actors of the problems/conflicts in their
respective regions or regional/global developments push them for “partnership”.

For Turkey, Russia is an important regional player and
one of the leading actors of the post-Western global order, which is considered
a key energy supplier and partner in many different areas. Mentioned features
of Russia will remain in the short and medium term. In this respect, having
good neighborly relations with Moscow and managing differences will continue to
be important for Turkey.

On the other hand, increasing the functionality of
institutions in terms of Turkish foreign policy may make it possible to seek
ways to reduce the level of asymmetrical interdependence in Turkish-Russian
relations in favor of Ankara by paving the way for pursuing an interest-based
foreign policy. If one of the most critical weaknesses of Turkish-Russian
relations is the lack of institutionalization, the other is the asymmetry in
the interdependence mentioned above. Although leader-to-leader dialogue makes
it possible to develop a solid partnership, the absence of mechanisms to manage
unexpected crises, as seen in the example of the aircraft crisis, is felt
intensely.

Asymmetry in bilateral relations is not limited to the
economic field. Turkey’s energy supply and resource diversification is essential
for long-term energy security. While Russia has been a significant supplier of oil
and natural gas, with the building of the Mersin Akkuyu nuclear power plant, Turkey’s
energy dependence on Russia is being reinforced.

In addition, from a security perspective, the Russian
military presence has increased in the region since it annexed Crimea. Moreover,
Turkey’s purchase of a Russian-made S400s missile defense system may, in the longer
term, create a security gap in the country’s defense in case of a possible
crisis with Russia. Considering all these factors, it is imperative for Ankara
to overcome the confidence crisis with Western states in foreign policy and
security and to re-establish its traditional diplomatic presence in
international organizations. This will not only enlarge the room for maneuvering
in Turkish foreign policy but also increase Turkey’s political power during
negotiations in different fields vis-a-vis Russia.

In conclusion, Turkey’s policy towards Russia is essential
regarding regional security, stability, and maintaining global order. Although
historically, bilateral relations are mostly known for their competitive nature,
the Soviets have always been considered a balancing actor in foreign policy
since the establishment of the Republic of Turkey. Nevertheless, the 2000s
represent a critical period in the history of bilateral relations. The relations
have been developed in many areas, remarkable momentum has been gained, and the
results of cooperation in regional security and foreign policy developments
have been observed.

Still, bilateral relations have certain limits primarily due to the lack of shared values and joined perception of the future of the international system. However, Russia will continue to be an essential actor for Turkey regionally and globally. In this respect, taking advantage of multidimensional cooperation and partnerships to manage conflicts between Ankara and Moscow while aiming to change the asymmetrical interdependence from economy to foreign policy in favor of Ankara stands out as a strategy that should be prioritized in terms of Turkish foreign policy.

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To cite this work:  Habibe Özdal, “Turkey’s Policy towards Russia and Turkey-Russia Relations” Panorama, 08 September 2023, urkey’s policy towards Russia has some aspects of historical continuity, though it has also acquired new dimensions in the 2000s. Turkey and Russia prioritized strengthening their relations with Western states for different reasons at the beginning of the 20^th century. Turkish political elite wished their country to be included in the Western world ideologically and identically from the early years of the Republic of Turkey. The Soviet Union was, on the other hand, an important partner when Turkey opted for a balanced foreign policy. While one can find exceptions, Turkey maintained its relations with the Soviet Union even during the Cold War and preferred to intensify its collaboration, especially after Johnson’s letter created an enormous drift between Turkey and the U.S. Yet, Turkey’s relations with the Soviet Union were mainly limited with the trade and energy.

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